Karl Gallagher (libertarianhawk) wrote,
Karl Gallagher
libertarianhawk

Guest Post: Risks

I received this in email from a reader who wishes to remain anonymous.

I’ve been reading your posts, and particularly your recent discussion on a State Diagram of the War

Personally, "Arabia Delenda Est" sounds good to me. I'm really afraid that if we don't move towards it QUICK our descendents will be - what was the term? dhimmis at best and corpses more likely.

I understand that you feel that in a few years we'll have a good idea of how the experiment in Iraq will come out, and then it may be time to re-evaluate the choices. I'd like to get you to think about it more now.

I'm terrified by the whole subject. I feel like you and other bloggers are all talking about theories and debating issues and wanting to avoid "getting your souls sticky" and in the meantime the last free time for westerners is blowing away, and I'm so afraid that very soon it will be too late for the future of my kids.

I don't know if Iraq was going to be a problem or not, I don't care really, Islam is a problem, and I wish they'd just gone after all of them. Going after the Saudis would be good. I am afraid that it's all going to be so limited and people trying to be reasonable and you can't be reasonable with the Islamicists.

I know you think the Gunpoint Democracy option may work. I hear you say that a lot. (I'd really like it to work myself.) Given what an incredibly high set of stakes there are, I wish you'd think more on "what if it won't".

I've seen you say that you want to see what the underlying assumptions are. Let me point out one that I am seeing.

There seems to be an underlying assumption of "It will be just as easy to do Arabia Delenda Est later, as a backup to Gunpoint Democracy, as it would be to do Arabia Delenda Est now. So we'll try Gunpoint Democracy first." I am thinking that Arabia Delenda Est will get harder and have a lower chance of success as time passes and the Islamicists embed themselves in other countries and gain more and more control, as they are doing in Europe. It may be that if Arabia Delenda Est isn't picked up soon, it may vanish as an end state, leaving, I fear, Global Caliphate far more likely.

This is a major risk of trying Gunpoint Democracy.

I'm not saying I'm fond of any of this. Only I want me and mine to survive. Kipling, if you will -

Man propounds negotiations, Man accepts the compromise.
Very rarely will he squarely push the logic of a fact
To its ultimate conclusion in unmitigated act.

Our contentions must be our children - all of our children, and all of theirs. They have declared that they want to commit genocide on US, and are trying their best. This is a pretty clear message! Doubt and pity go right over the side, as the poet saw.
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